Please, please, please stop all the nonsense about why you think the oddsmakers did such a great job setting the line on a football game, because the game in question had a line of two or three and the final outcome was a differential of two or three points.
Please read the following ---
The job of the oddsmaker is NOT to predict the outcome of a sporting event. Their job is to set a line on a game that will attract equal wagering on both teams. Once the game begins the oddsmaker has already made his/her money. The outcome of the game is irrelevant to them.
Doing a good job, is setting a line that, when offered up to the public, sees little if any movement.
The game in question can show Team 'A' open as a favorite of -4 and never move from that number and have a final outcome of Team 'A' winning by 34. The oddsmaker in THAT game did a great job.
Conversely, if Team 'A' opened as a favorite of -4 and the line steadily moved to -1, before kickoff, and Team 'A' won the game by one, two, three or four points .... The oddsmaker did NOT do a good job on that game.
The job of the oddsmaker is to predict the actions of the bettors, not the outcome of the games. The more the line is moved by public wagering, the worse the job done by the oddsmaker.
Granted, big time booking operations do not necessarily have to balance their books, because they have the bankroll to support their business and therefore they can actually afford to gamble as well as book. The main reason they can afford to do this is because, unlike you and I, they do not have to lay $110.00 to win $100.00.
For example: The book can take in $22,000.00, on the favorite (vigorish included) and then take in $11,000.00 on the dog (vig included). If the favorite wins the game, the book pays out $20.000.00, to the winning bettors, so he would lose $9,000.00. However, if the dog wins the wager, the book will pay out %10,000.00, to those winning bettors and take in $22,000.00, from the losing bettors, thereby realizing a profit of $12,000.00.
As you can see, the book can afford to not only be a book maker, but also a gambler, because he only has to risk $9,000.00 to win $12,000.00. You and I would have to risk $13,200.00 ($1,200.00 vigorish) to win $12,000.00.
Bottom line: We, as players, have to win approximately 53% of our wagers just to break even. The bookmaker only has to win approximately 43% to break even. It is rather obvious for all to see, that the bookmakers are working with a tremendous advantage when they take their so called --- gamble.
Despite all those numbers, the oddsmakers still have no interest in attempting to predict the final point differential of the games, when posting lines for sporting events. With the books winning the 'juice', if the wagers on each team are equal and having to only win more than 43% of YOUR wagers to show a profit, when they hold more money on one team than they do the other, they do not have to predict final score differentials in order to do their job.
For those that still believe the oddsmakers are uncanny in their so called, 'final outcome' predictions, we shall further destroy that myth as well.
Consider the following:
During the 2003 season, Carolina, Dallas, GB, Indy, KC, Miami, Minn, NYG, Philly, TB & the Titans, all combined for 66 total losses. In those 66 S/U (straight-up) losses they managed to cover exactly ZERO games. In other words the spread did not come in to play in any of those 66 losses.
As a matter of fact, in nearly five of every six NFL games the team that wins the game on the field covers the spread.
Bottom line: The spread plays no role in 83% of all NFL games. Therefore, using the popular belief that the oddsmakers are nearly always correct, because so many games end up on the magic number .... They are only 'close' in 17% of the NFL games.
This is in no way an indictment of the oddsmakers. They do a tremendous job, especially when you consider the fact that they have to hang a number on every game.
The problem, however, seems to be that most people apparently don't know what the job actually is or even how to tell if the oddsmaker did indeed do a good job or not.
We are reminded of a story about the late Sonny Reizner, bookmaker extraordinaire. Sonny was asked if he had blown the JETS vs COLTS Super Bowl, because he posted the Colts as 19 point favorites, and they lost the game straight-up. Sonny had the following reply: "Quite the contrary. That number was the exact magic number needed to get the bettors to back the underdog as well as the favorite. It turned out to be a great number (line) for Vegas."
The moral of the story is twofold:
1. If you want to win the majority of your NFL wagers, forget the spread.
2. The line makers are NOT trying to predict the winners of the game nor the final score differential.
Just imagine if you could correctly pick the S/U (straight-up) winner of all the NFL games, you would win 83% of all your wagers. Now THAT would be R-E-M-A-R-K-A-B-L-E !
GOOD LUCK & HAPPY WAGERING